Ontario’s farmland does more than produce corn, soybeans, wheat, vegetables, dairy products, meat and fruit. It supports rural communities, food-processing plants, transportation companies, equipment dealers, skilled trades and hundreds of thousands of jobs.
Yet the amount of land reported as part of Ontario farms has been declining.
Between 2016 and 2021, Ontario’s total farm area fell by approximately 582,000 acres. That decline produced the frequently quoted estimate that the province was losing the equivalent of 319 acres of farmland every day.
If anything close to that pace continues, Ontario could enter 2050 with millions fewer acres of farmland, even as its population grows beyond 20 million people.
That does not mean Ontario will run out of food. It does mean the province could become more dependent on productivity improvements, greenhouse production, food imports and a smaller agricultural land base.
The real question is not whether Ontario should stop building homes, roads and infrastructure. It is whether the province can accommodate growth without unnecessarily consuming some of Canada’s most productive and difficult-to-replace soil.
How Much Farmland Has Ontario Already Lost?
According to the 2021 Census of Agriculture, Ontario had:
- 48,346 farms
- 11,766,071 acres of total farm area
- 9,051,011 acres of land in crops
- An average farm-operator age of 56.7 years
Ontario’s total farm area declined by 4.7 per cent between 2016 and 2021, while the number of farms declined by 2.5 per cent.
Across Canada, total farm area declined by 3.2 per cent during the same period, falling to approximately 153.7 million acres.
Ontario therefore experienced a faster decline in reported farm area than Canada as a whole.
The Ontario Federation of Agriculture calculated that Ontario’s total farm area fell by 582,392 acres between 2016 and 2021. Dividing that loss across five years produces an average of approximately 116,478 acres annually—or 319 acres per day.
For comparison, the OFA reported that Ontario lost the equivalent of approximately 175 acres per day between 2011 and 2016.
The rate calculated for 2016–2021 was therefore more than 80 per cent higher.
Does Ontario Really Pave Over 319 Acres Every Day?
Not necessarily.
This is an important distinction that is sometimes lost when the farmland-loss statistic is repeated.
Statistics Canada defines total farm area as land owned or operated by an agricultural operation. It includes:
- Cropland
- Summerfallow
- Improved and unimproved pasture
- Woodlands and wetlands
- Idle land
- Farmyards and buildings
- Other land operated as part of a farm
A decline in total farm area does not prove that every missing acre was covered with subdivisions, warehouses or highways.
Land can disappear from the Census of Agriculture totals for several reasons:
- A farm ceases operating.
- Rented land is no longer reported by an active farm.
- A property is purchased for development.
- Agricultural land is divided into smaller rural-residential lots.
- Pasture or marginal land is no longer actively farmed.
- Land is converted to an industrial, commercial or institutional use.
- Reporting or farm-definition changes affect the census results.
There is another important detail: while Ontario’s total farm area declined by 4.7 per cent between 2016 and 2021, its land in crops increased slightly by 0.3 per cent.
That suggests the story is more complicated than hundreds of acres of actively cropped land being paved every day. Farmers may be cropping existing land more intensively, bringing other land into production or concentrating production on the best available acres.
Nevertheless, once prime farmland is permanently covered by pavement, buildings and underground infrastructure, returning it to agricultural production is extraordinarily difficult.
The 319-acre figure should therefore be treated as an indicator of pressure on Ontario’s agricultural land base—not as a precise measurement of how many acres are paved each day.
Why Ontario Farmland Is Nationally Important
Ontario contains a relatively small share of Canada’s total farmland, but it produces a disproportionately large amount of the country’s food.
According to Statistics Canada’s provincial agriculture analysis, Ontario accounted for:
- 59.9 per cent of Canada’s corn-for-grain area
- 54.4 per cent of Canada’s soybean area
- 76.1 per cent of Canada’s winter-wheat area
- 61.8 per cent of Canada’s greenhouse area
Ontario and Quebec also held most of Canada’s dairy cows and a large share of its hog population.
The province benefits from productive soils, relatively reliable precipitation, access to the Great Lakes, major transportation routes and proximity to processors and consumers. Southern Ontario also has a growing season that cannot simply be duplicated elsewhere in the country.
Canada has enormous land resources, but much of the country is unsuitable for intensive agriculture because of climate, terrain, soil quality, drainage or distance from markets.
Losing productive land in southern Ontario cannot necessarily be offset by clearing the same number of acres somewhere in northern Ontario or another province.
Farmland Is Also Economic Infrastructure
Farmland is often discussed as though it were vacant land waiting for a more profitable use. In reality, it is the foundation of a large economic system.
Ontario’s 2025 Local Food Report stated that the province’s agri-food industry contributed nearly $51 billion to Ontario’s gross domestic product and employed more than 871,000 people—approximately one in every nine Ontario workers.
That system includes far more than farms. It supports:
- Food and beverage manufacturing
- Grain elevators and feed mills
- Livestock transport
- Trucking and warehousing
- Farm equipment dealerships
- Heavy-equipment and truck repair
- Seed, fertilizer and crop-protection suppliers
- Veterinarians
- Drainage contractors
- Construction companies
- Refrigerated storage
- Grocery distribution
- Restaurants and food-service businesses
A subdivision may generate more immediate municipal tax revenue per acre than a farm field. However, that comparison can overlook the broader economic activity created by agriculture and the higher long-term servicing costs associated with dispersed development.
Farmland is not merely undeveloped property. It is productive infrastructure that operates without needing to be built by government.
What Could Ontario’s Farmland Look Like by 2050?
No one can state exactly how much farmland Ontario will have in 2050. Population growth, planning policies, commodity prices, farm consolidation, housing demand and future census results will all affect the outcome.
However, the recent rate of decline can be used to illustrate what is at stake.
Ontario had approximately 11.77 million acres of total farm area in 2021.
The following scenarios extend different rates of decline from 2021 through 2050. They are mathematical illustrations, not official forecasts.
| 2050 scenario | Assumed average decline | Estimated area lost, 2021–2050 | Approximate farm area remaining |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recent pace continues | 319 acres per day | 3.38 million acres | 8.39 million acres |
| Rate is cut in half | About 160 acres per day | 1.69 million acres | 10.08 million acres |
| Rate returns to 2011–2016 level | 175 acres per day | 1.85 million acres | 9.91 million acres |
| Major conservation improvement | 50 acres per day | 529,000 acres | 11.24 million acres |
If the 2016–2021 rate continued in a straight line, Ontario would lose approximately 29 per cent of its 2021 farm area by 2050.
Again, this should not be interpreted as a prediction. Trends rarely continue in a perfectly straight line for three decades. The calculation shows the cumulative effect of accepting today’s rate as normal.
Even a seemingly small daily loss becomes enormous when it continues year after year.
More People Sharing a Smaller Agricultural Land Base
Ontario’s population was 14,223,942 in the 2021 Census. The province now projects its population could reach more than 20 million by approximately 2050 or 2051, although projections change with immigration, migration, birth rates and government policy.
Using the 2021 figures, Ontario had approximately:
0.83 acres of total farm area per resident
Under the 319-acre-per-day scenario, Ontario could have approximately 8.39 million acres of farm area by 2050. If the population reaches roughly 20.5 million, that would equal only:
0.41 acres of total farm area per resident
This calculation does not measure the exact amount of land needed to feed one person. Agricultural production varies greatly depending on soil, climate, crop type, livestock production, technology and trade.
It does illustrate the direction of travel: Ontario could have substantially more people and considerably less land associated with farms.
What Ontario Could Physically Look Like by 2050
Farmland loss does not normally occur as one enormous block. It often happens incrementally along settlement boundaries, highways and rural roads.
By 2050, parts of southern Ontario could experience several visible changes.
Larger Urban Corridors
Communities surrounding the Greater Toronto Area, Hamilton, Kitchener-Waterloo, London, Barrie and Ottawa could become more closely connected by continuous residential, commercial and industrial development.
Individual towns may retain their names while the open farmland separating them gradually disappears.
More Warehouses and Employment Lands
Large distribution centres are frequently located near major highways because they require transportation access and extensive flat sites.
Unfortunately, some of the same qualities that make land attractive for farming—flat terrain, good drainage and proximity to transportation—also make it attractive for industrial development.
A warehouse occupying 100 acres may create jobs and economic activity, but the soil beneath the building and parking lot is effectively removed from food production.
Fragmented Farm Operations
A farm does not need to be completely developed to become more difficult to operate.
When subdivisions, rural estates and commercial properties interrupt agricultural areas, farmers may face:
- Longer travel distances between fields
- Increased machinery traffic on busy roads
- Complaints about dust, noise and odours
- Restrictions on manure application
- Greater conflicts over normal farm practices
- Higher land prices
- Difficulty expanding livestock facilities
- More trespassing and crop damage
- Drainage complications
- Pressure to sell remaining parcels
A field may still exist, but the surrounding agricultural system can become progressively less functional.
Higher Land Prices
Development expectations can influence the price of farmland far beyond the land actually approved for construction.
When buyers believe a property may eventually be rezoned, its price can become disconnected from what the land can realistically earn through farming.
That makes it harder for young farmers and expanding family operations to purchase land. It can also make farm succession more complicated because the property’s market value may be much greater than its agricultural earning capacity.
Fewer Independent Farms
Farm consolidation is not automatically harmful. Larger farms can be efficient, innovative and highly productive.
The concern arises when high land costs and limited availability leave new farmers with no realistic entry point. Ontario could maintain high production while having fewer people owning increasingly expensive and concentrated agricultural assets.
That could change the character of rural Ontario even if many fields remain in production.
Housing Growth and Farmland Protection Are Not Opposites
Ontario unquestionably needs more housing.
Preventing every community from expanding would make housing shortages worse, drive prices higher and restrict economic growth. Rural towns also need room for local businesses, schools, health facilities and appropriately planned housing.
The choice is not between protecting every acre and building nothing.
The real issue is how efficiently Ontario uses land.
Low-density development can consume far more farmland per resident than compact neighbourhoods containing a mixture of detached homes, townhouses, apartments and small residential buildings.
Communities can accommodate population growth by:
- Building on vacant or underused urban land
- Redeveloping abandoned commercial properties
- Converting surface parking areas
- Increasing density along existing transit and service corridors
- Allowing more housing types inside existing settlement boundaries
- Directing major industrial projects to less agriculturally valuable locations
- Expanding municipal boundaries only after existing land is used efficiently
Protecting farmland does not mean forcing everyone into a highrise. It means avoiding the needless consumption of productive soil when practical alternatives exist.
Why Paving Prime Soil Is Usually Permanent
Agricultural soil is not simply dirt.
Healthy soil contains minerals, organic matter, microorganisms, pore spaces, moisture and a physical structure developed over long periods. Ontario’s Agricultural Soil Health and Conservation Strategy notes that healthy soil improves crop growth, yield, quality, and water and nutrient retention.
During development, topsoil may be stripped, compacted, mixed, moved or removed. The remaining soil is covered by roads, foundations, parking lots and buried utilities.
Even if a development is eventually demolished, reconstructing an effective agricultural soil profile would be costly and uncertain.
A factory can be rebuilt. A road can be rerouted. Productive soil formed through natural processes is much harder to replace.
Food Imports Cannot Solve Every Problem
Canada will continue trading agricultural products with other countries. Imports provide foods that cannot be grown economically in the Canadian climate and help maintain year-round availability.
Trade is not inherently a threat to food security.
However, excessive dependence on distant suppliers creates exposure to:
- Extreme weather
- Drought
- War and political instability
- Border disruptions
- Currency fluctuations
- Fuel and transportation costs
- Export restrictions
- Labour disruptions
- Crop diseases
- Water shortages in exporting regions
Ontario cannot and does not need to produce every item consumed within the province. It does need enough agricultural capacity to remain resilient when international supply chains become unreliable.
Local production and international trade should support one another. Imports should not become a substitute for protecting productive land at home.
Climate Change Makes Productive Farmland More Valuable
Climate change may lengthen the growing season for some Ontario crops, but it also introduces additional risks.
Farmers may experience:
- More intense rainfall
- Longer dry periods
- Heat stress affecting livestock and crops
- Greater erosion
- New pests and plant diseases
- Unpredictable spring conditions
- Warmer winters with reduced snow cover
- Increased drainage and irrigation requirements
A smaller land base leaves less flexibility when some regions experience drought, flooding or crop failure.
Farmland also helps absorb rainfall where soil remains healthy and uncompacted. Once large areas are paved, water moves more rapidly into municipal drains, creeks and rivers, increasing the need for engineered stormwater systems.
Protecting farmland is therefore connected to food security, watershed management and climate resilience.
Existing Ontario Farmland Protections
Ontario’s Provincial Planning Statement, 2024 requires prime agricultural areas to be protected for long-term agricultural use.
The province’s agricultural-system approach considers both the land base and the wider network needed to support agriculture. That network includes farms, processors, transportation infrastructure, agricultural services and rural communities.
Ontario also uses several planning tools and policies:
- Prime agricultural-area designations
- Specialty-crop-area protections
- The Greenbelt Plan
- Minimum-distance separation requirements
- Agricultural impact assessments
- Restrictions on non-agricultural uses
- Municipal official plans and zoning bylaws
These policies matter, but their effectiveness depends on how consistently they are applied.
Farmland protection can be weakened one approval at a time through settlement expansions, severances, infrastructure corridors and site-specific rezoning. Each proposal may appear small when considered independently, while the combined effect becomes significant over several decades.
What Ontario Could Do Differently
There is no single policy capable of solving farmland loss. Ontario needs a combination of land-use planning, agricultural investment and realistic housing policy.
1. Measure Permanent Conversion More Accurately
Ontario should maintain a transparent, publicly accessible system that distinguishes among:
- Land permanently converted to development
- Land no longer operated by a census farm
- Land remaining available for agriculture
- Land temporarily idle
- Changes caused by reporting or farm consolidation
Better data would make it easier to determine whether policies are actually protecting productive land.
2. Establish a Clear Farmland-Loss Target
Governments frequently establish targets for housing, emissions, infrastructure and economic growth. Ontario could establish a measurable target for reducing the permanent conversion of prime agricultural land.
A target would not prohibit all development. It would require governments to track and justify the land being consumed.
3. Use Existing Urban Land More Efficiently
Municipalities should demonstrate that reasonable redevelopment and intensification opportunities have been considered before expanding onto prime agricultural land.
This should include unused employment land, vacant commercial properties, abandoned industrial sites and excessive surface parking.
4. Require Strong Agricultural Impact Assessments
Agricultural impact assessments should examine more than the number of acres directly affected.
They should consider:
- Farm access
- Drainage
- Minimum-distance separation
- Machinery routes
- Livestock operations
- Land fragmentation
- Effects on nearby agricultural businesses
- The cumulative impact of nearby developments
Ontario finalized provincial Agricultural Impact Assessment guidance to support implementation of these requirements. Consistent municipal application will be crucial.
5. Protect Complete Agricultural Areas
Saving isolated fields is not enough if the surrounding farm community becomes impossible to operate within.
Effective protection must include drainage systems, equipment routes, livestock facilities, processors, elevators, input suppliers and access to neighbouring land.
Agriculture functions as a system.
6. Support Farm Succession and New Farmers
Ontario’s average farmer is getting older. Protecting land will accomplish little if the next generation cannot afford to farm it.
Possible measures include:
- Improved succession-planning support
- Long-term agricultural leases
- Community farmland trusts
- Agricultural easements
- Financing programs for new farmers
- Incentives to rent unused workable land
- Tax policies that support genuine intergenerational farm transfers
7. Avoid Speculation-Driven Planning
Farmland prices should primarily reflect agricultural productivity, not rumours that a municipal boundary may eventually move.
Clear and durable settlement boundaries reduce speculative pressure and give both farmers and developers greater certainty.
8. Invest in Rural Infrastructure
Protecting farmland must be accompanied by policies that keep agriculture economically viable.
Farmers need reliable roads, drainage, broadband, energy, veterinary services, equipment repair, processing capacity and access to markets.
A protected field that cannot support a viable farm business may eventually face renewed development pressure.
Can Technology Make Up for Lost Farmland?
Agricultural technology can produce more food from each acre.
Ontario farmers are already using:
- Precision fertilizer application
- GPS-guided equipment
- Improved seed genetics
- Controlled-environment agriculture
- Automated livestock systems
- Soil mapping
- Variable-rate planting
- Drones and remote sensing
- Advanced drainage and irrigation
- Data-based crop management
Greenhouses can produce remarkable quantities of certain vegetables on a relatively small footprint. Higher crop yields can also reduce the amount of land needed for each tonne of production.
However, technology does not make farmland unnecessary.
Greenhouses require land, energy, water, labour and transportation. Livestock still requires feed. Crop yields cannot increase indefinitely, and intensive production can create additional pressure on soil and water if it is poorly managed.
Productivity improvements should complement farmland protection—not become an excuse for continued land consumption.
So, Is Canada Losing Too Much Farmland?
At the national level, Canada remains one of the world’s major agricultural countries. It had approximately 153.7 million acres of total farm area in 2021.
However, national totals can hide regional risks.
Ontario contains some of Canada’s most productive and strategically located agricultural land. It also faces some of the country’s strongest development pressure.
The 319-acre-per-day figure should not be interpreted as proof that all of that land is being paved. Statistics Canada’s figures show that total farm area and actively cropped land do not always move in the same direction.
But the broader warning is legitimate.
Ontario cannot continue treating farmland as an unlimited reserve for subdivisions, highways, warehouses and scattered rural development. Once prime soil is permanently removed, future generations cannot easily recreate it.
The Ontario We Choose for 2050
By 2050, Ontario will likely have millions more residents, more housing, new transportation corridors and a much larger economy.
The province could also remain one of Canada’s agricultural powerhouses—if growth is carefully planned.
A successful Ontario in 2050 would not be a province where development was stopped. It would be a province where homes were built efficiently, communities grew thoughtfully, agricultural systems remained intact and prime farmland was only consumed when no practical alternative existed.
The greatest danger is not one subdivision or one warehouse.
It is the cumulative effect of thousands of individual decisions, each removing a few more acres and making the next agricultural operation more difficult to sustain.
Farmland can appear empty when viewed from a highway. In reality, it is producing food, supporting jobs, managing rainfall, maintaining rural communities and preserving choices for people who have not yet been born.
Ontario’s farmland is not just a reminder of the province’s past.
It is infrastructure for its future.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much farmland is Ontario losing every day?
The Ontario Federation of Agriculture calculated an average decline of approximately 319 acres per day between the 2016 and 2021 censuses. This measures the decline in total area reported as part of Ontario farms. It does not prove that all 319 acres were permanently paved or developed.
How much farmland did Ontario have in 2021?
Statistics Canada reported approximately 11.77 million acres of total farm area, including about 9.05 million acres of land in crops.
Could Ontario lose three million acres by 2050?
If the 2016–2021 average decline continued unchanged from 2021 through 2050, the mathematical loss would be approximately 3.38 million acres. This is an illustrative scenario, not an official forecast.
Why can’t farming simply move farther north?
Northern Ontario has agricultural opportunities, but climate, soil capability, drainage, infrastructure, transportation distance and shorter growing seasons limit where different crops can be produced. Northern expansion cannot directly replace all the productive capacity of southern Ontario.
Does protecting farmland prevent new housing?
No. Farmland protection can be combined with housing construction by using existing serviced land more efficiently, redeveloping underused properties, increasing the range of housing types and limiting unnecessary low-density expansion onto prime soil.
Can farmland be restored after development?
Minor disturbances may be repaired, but farmland covered by roads, buildings, utilities and parking lots is extremely difficult and expensive to restore. Soil structure and drainage can be permanently altered.
What is the difference between farmland and land in crops?
Total farm area includes cropland, pasture, woodland, wetlands, farm buildings, idle land and other land operated by a farm. Land in crops is the portion specifically used to grow crops. That distinction is why a decline in total farm area does not always represent an equal decline in crop acreage.
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